A draft report from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency would increase its estimated social cost of carbon dioxide nearly fourfold – even as a Louisiana legal challenge to federal measures to monetize harm caused by greenhouse gases plays out.
The EPA report, which was published in September, pegs the social cost of CO2 at $190 per metric ton. The federal government’s current estimate, which the Biden administration wants to incorporate in federal rulemaking to reflect harms caused by greenhouse gas production, is $51 per metric ton.
“The increased numbers are very concerning,” Elizabeth Murrill, Louisiana’s solicitor general, told the Louisiana Record. “It’s a dramatic increase.”
The state Attorney General’s Office sued the Biden administration over its greenhouse gas economic modeling, arguing that the initial $51-per-metric-ton estimate would be harmful to the state’s energy sector as well as other parts of the economy, including agriculture and manufacturing.
The legal effort led a federal district judge to issue an injunction against the use of the social cost of carbon estimate in cost-benefit analyses in federal actions. But the injunction was later stayed by another judicial panel, and the parties will be making oral arguments in the coming week at the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals to determine whether the injunction will be reinstated.
The proposed increase in social carbon costs do not change anything about the state’s fundamental arguments against the administration’s valuation of the damage caused by greenhouse gases, Murrill said.
“These numbers are used to justify a dramatic, expansive increase in regulating the environment,” she said, noting that they would affect the oil and gas industry and the production of goods such as fertilizers. “There’s nothing these numbers would not touch. … This is a weapon to justify transforming the economy and people’s behavior.”
The EPA’s new greenhouse gas estimates are based on modeling refinements recommended by the National Academies. The EPA is requesting public comment on the new estimates.